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Topic: Alternative outcome, If there was an advance word< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
 Post Number: 11
Garry Milton Search for posts by this member.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jun. 17 2001,4:08  Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

The American fleet would have indeed put to sea, but would not necessarily have known the location of the Japanese Force.  As I see it, there would be three possible outcomes:-

1 - The Japanese, listening in to Honolulu Radio would have got wind of the mobilisation of the fleet, and called off the attack.

2 - The Japanese would not have learned of the mobilisation until the First Wave was attacking Pearl, and discovered no ships in harbour.  The aircraft would have been recalled, and the fleet retreated (see note below).

3 - Worse case scenario for the Japanese - the American Fleet discovers them just as the First Wave are approaching Pearl.  This would leave the Japanese with only the third wave to defend themselves (which if I remember correctly, contained NO torpedo planes) and being vastly outnumbered in surface ships.  If forced to retreat, 350 planes and their highly trained crews would never have returned to Japan, with a devestating loss to the carrier air wing.

I do not believe the Japanese would actually wish to partcipate in a surface battle at this time, due to a lack of fuel - and remember, Admiral Nagumo withdrew his force simply because he was unaware of the whereabouts of the American Carriers - Imagine how he'd be if he didn't know where the entire fleet was!

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 Post Number: 12
Philip Payton Search for posts by this member.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jun. 27 2001,8:11 Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Hi all,

to throw in my tuppence worth I think the loses to both sides would have been significant, according to sites i've looked at the japanese had in thier attacking group :

6 Carriers, 2 Battleships, 2 Heavy Cruisers, 2 Light Cruisers, 9 Destroyers, 3 Submarines with the fleet, 7 Tankers, 25 Subs out ahead, 5 midget subs.

The USN had within 400 miles of pearl :

2 Aircraft Carriers,7 Battleships, 9 Heavy Cruisers, 6 Light Cruisers, 42 Destroyers, 12 Submarines, 51 Aux vessels, mine sweepers, tankers, hospital ships etc plus over 300 aircraft based on O'ahu itself.

The attacking japanese fleet if they did not know that they had been discovered would have been obliterated,

Firstly apart from superior subs and carriers they were heavily outnumbered by the US in every other catergory, secondly the japanese fleet would only have had the third wave as protection and has already been mentioned these did not consist of torpedo planes.  

As the first and second wave reached Pearl they would not only of had to have tended with the fact that the majority of ships were absent but also that the americans were prepared to defend the island and a vicious aerial battle would surely have ensued, the majority of the jap planes being destroyed

Those that did survive would return back to the fleet to disover that they had no where to land and that they had to contend with aircraft from the lexington and enterprise.

The only plus for the Japanese is thier submarine force which would probably inflict a massive price on the united states navy.

either way both sides would be significantly weakened for a considerable time as they rebuilt thier forces for round 2.

please feel free to correct me on the many points i'm sure that i've got wrong.......

 

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johnbryan Search for posts by this member.

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PostIcon Posted on: Aug. 31 2009,9:57 Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I read today that well before the attack, Japanese reconnaissance aircraft flew to Lahaina Roadstead as well as over Pearl Harbor to see where the US Fleet lay. áIn the event that no US ships were in either location, the Japanese attacking aircraft were to continue patroling to a distance of some 30miles off shore, in an attempt to find the US Fleet before returning to their aircraft carriers.
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Larry J Search for posts by this member.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 02 2010,9:03 Skip to the previous post in this topic.  Ignore posts   QUOTE


(johnbryan @ Aug. 31 2009,7:57)
QUOTE
I read today that well before the attack, Japanese reconnaissance aircraft flew to Lahaina Roadstead as well as over Pearl Harbor to see where the US Fleet lay. áIn the event that no US ships were in either location, the Japanese attacking aircraft were to continue patroling to a distance of some 30miles off shore, in an attempt to find the US Fleet before returning to their aircraft carriers.

They did indeed scout Lahaina anchorage. The BBs would have been well and truly sunk if they'd gone down there.

I've seen claims that the reports from the scouts should have tipped us off. Problems with that:

1. We'd have to have intercepted the transmission. Any good signal would have been short to avoid this. Sending it more than once makes sense, to insure receipt, but the message still has to be intercepted.

2. After and if it was intercepted it would have be determined to be of importance. A 5 second message would not be of major interest to anyone on a Sunday morning.

3. IF it was deemed of interest we'd have to decypher and understand the message. Here's how it might have been worded:

"19 no".  (That means "Scout Nineteen reports no ships at the anchorage.")

Now, without context, what does that tell us? Nothing.

IF we decyphered and decoded it, we still don't have "major attack coming from the other direction". Our attention would have been directed toward Lahaina. If, by some miracle the intercept people did do all the above they still  have to get the word out. Kimmel was already in motion to his headquarters because of the Ward report, so this additional information wouldn't have changed anything.


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"Sunday's horoscope is note worthy because of its strange, sudden and wholly unpredictable and inexplicable occurrences, affecting all phases of life." Your Horoscope" L.A. Evening Herald Express, Sat, 12/06/41
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